2020-07-06

• COVID-19 epidemic is most advanced in the states of New York and New Jersey

• In the states of New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island the epidemic is more advanced than in the most affected countries in Europe

• The number of deaths per 1000 people in the states of New York and New Jersey is the same as in Lombardy (region of Italy), where the epidemic seems to be coming to an end

• Most US states will struggle with COVID-19 for many more months to come

Both Americas are now considered the most affected regions of the COVID-19 epidemic in the world. According to statistics, the large number of confirmed cases in the world is noticed in the US (Johns Hopkins University, Google). However the number of confirmed cases is not the best measure to compare the course of an epidemic in different countries both because of differences in who is being tested and how much total testing is done in a given country. The only comparable and reliable data to compare different countries or regions is the number of deaths caused by COVID-19.

The chart below shows the number of total deaths (as at July 5, 2020) in all US states:

As you can see, the range of deaths between particular states is very large. In the state of New York, there are over 30,000 deaths and in the state of New Jersey, over 15,000 people died. In Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Maine, Montana, North and South Dakota and Wyoming, from several to several hundred people have died due to COVID-19. To show a clear image of the epidemic in such a comparison it is necessary to take into account the number of residents of a given state. The plot below shows the summary of the number of deaths per number of residents of a given state:

The differences between states are smaller, though still significant (order of magnitude). Two items from the right were added to the chart - the number of deaths per 1000 residents in Lombardy, the most affected region of Italy (red bar and line) and in Poland (green bar and line) where the epidemic proceeds mildly.

In New York and New Jersey, the number of deaths per capita is practically the same as in Lombardy. The orange area indicates the levels of number of deaths in the European countries most affected by COVID-19: Belgium, Great Britain, Spain, Italy, France, Ireland and Sweden. In Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, the number of deaths per 1000 residents exceeds the values ​​recorded in Europe. In several more states (Delaware, DC, Illinois, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan and Pennsylvania) they are at a similarly high level. At the same time in 13 states, the number of deaths per capita is similar or even lower than in Poland.

The number of deaths in New York and New Jersey at a level corresponding to Lombardy is the most striking and thought-provoking. Let's compare how the number of deaths in the most-affected states and Lombardy has changed over time, counting since 10th deaths due to COVID-19 in every state:

It clearly shows the course of the epidemic over time is practically the same in the states of New York, New Jersey and the region of Lombardy. Both total number of deaths and death ratio are very similar in that two states and the most affected region of Europe.

In Lombardy, the epidemic seems to be coming to an end. In broad population test for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Bergamo (the capital of Lombardy), done between April 23 and June 3, the 57% of the population had SARS-CoV-2 specific antibodies. The expected level of heard immunity in the case of COVID-19 is 60-80%. In recent weeks, the daily number of deaths due to COVID-19 in Lombardy has been several or over a dozen people. In the last 10 days in New York hospitals, the number of daily admissions for patients with COVID-19 is half the average number of admissions for influenza and influenza-like illness in recent years. It looks like New York and New Jersey are also heading towards the end of the COVID-19 epidemic. Unfortunately at the same time most Americans will struggle with COVID-19 for many more months to come.